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Matthew Ehrlichman

Seattle, WA
3.5C year-end 2025
55 matches · 40W–15L · seasons 20222026
Bump probability
3.03.54.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.53
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 17 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.0
36%
stay 3.5
64%
up to 4.0
Projected to December: 0% down · 78% stay · 22% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.44. Lower than today’s 3.53 because form regresses — players this far above their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 3.5 runs from 3.01 to 3.50. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Seattle · 3.5
12 of 311
WA · 3.5
62 of 1364

Matthew is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Matthew has been 3.5 for all 4 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the middle of the band to the top.

3.03.52022202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 3.5, Matthew has gone from the 92nd to the 82nd percentile of players at that level, 2022 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level3 levels played
3.5
74.5%
35W–12L · 59.5% of games
6.0mixed
2W–1L
not enough matches yet
7.0mixed
60%
3W–2L · 55.4% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history55 matches
L
Zane Dundon / XANDER FISS
2026-07-17 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Blake Anderson
+0.003better than expected — took 64% of games against 57% expected
3-6, 1-1
L
Ben Smith / Miguel Beltran
2026-07-08 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Jeff Knudson
+0.003about as expected — took 55% of games against 51% expected
7-5, 1-6, 1-0
W
Clayton Chang / Jeremiah Hawkins
2026-05-30 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Zebrick Roach
+0.011about as expected — took 54% of games against 49% expected
6-7, 6-4, 1-0
W
2026-05-16 · #2 Doubles · 3.5 · with Sam Heyworth
+0.017better than expected — took 71% of games against 59% expected
6-4, 6-1
L
Kwang Kim / Axel Andrews
2026-05-09 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Zebrick Roach
0.006about as expected — took 43% of games against 46% expected
6-4, 7-6
W
Han Zhao / Aviral Dua
2026-05-02 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Zebrick Roach
+0.044better than expected — took 92% of games against 63% expected
6-0, 6-1
W
Michael Gillespie / Michael Yau
2026-05-01 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Dan Holland
0.021below expectation — took 50% of games against 59% expected
4-6, 7-6, 1-0
L
Jason Shinn / Steven Luong
2026-04-18 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Jeff Knudson
0.030below expectation — took 38% of games against 52% expected
6-3, 7-5
W
Sopheak Seng / Mitch Francisco
2026-03-28 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Dan Holland
0.015below expectation — took 56% of games against 61% expected
6-2, 3-6, 1-0
W
2026-03-01 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Dan Holland
+0.031better than expected — took 71% of games against 54% expected
6-3, 6-2
W
Nate Hartman / Robert Sciranko
2026-02-22 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Blake Anderson
0.002about as expected — took 65% of games against 62% expected
7-5, 6-2
W
Matthew Bohan / John MacDonald
2026-01-30 · #1 Doubles · 3.5 · with Blake Anderson
+0.018better than expected — took 67% of games against 56% expected
6-4, 6-2
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.