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Ellyn Pavelka

Mooresville, NC
3.5C year-end 2025
142 matches · 77W–65L · seasons 2021–2026
Bump probability
3.03.54.0lowhigh
Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely.
i
The dashed lines are the edges of your band. The three shaded areas are exactly the three percentages below — area here is the chance of one outcome for you, not a count of players.
3.81
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 18 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.0
0%
stay 3.5
100%
up to 4.0
Projected to December: 0% down · 3% stay · 97% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.65. Lower than today’s 3.81 because form regresses — players this far above their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 3.5 runs from 3.01 to 3.50. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure.
i
scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model. USTA publishes year-end ratings in December, which is when this gets graded against what actually happened.
Where you rank
NC · 3.5
4 of 293
By our estimated rating, not the published level.
i
Ellyn is ranked against players at the same level in the same place. The published level is identical for everyone in a band, so it cannot separate them — our estimate can. Groups smaller than five are not ranked at all, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Ellyn has played at 4.0, 3.5 across 6 seasons — 0 moves up and 1 down.

3.03.54.0202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Ellyn has gone from the 64th to the 76th percentile of players at that level, 2021 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level7 levels played
3.5
83.3%
5W–1L · 75.6% of games
4.0
60.9%
42W–27L · 56.2% of games
4.5
25%
6W–18L · 37.6% of games
7.5
65.4%
17W–9L · 59.6% of games
8.5
33.3%
2W–4L · 44.3% of games
8.0mixed
44.4%
4W–5L · 45% of games
9.0mixed
1W–1L
not enough matches yet

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history142 matches
L
DeAnna Finger / Ellen Stupka
2026-07-27 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristy Del Monte
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
3-6, 7-5, 1-0
W
Mali Robinson / Heather Bain
2026-07-20 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Jana Ritter
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-3
W
MaryGwen Murash / Meredith Ortiz
2026-07-13 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristy Del Monte
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-0, 6-3
W
Leta Wiley / Kathy Henry
2026-07-06 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Jana Ritter
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 7-6
W
Liz Cloninger / April Hibbeler
2026-06-15 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristy Del Monte
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-0, 6-3
W
Millie Harrington / Maggie Strevell
2026-06-01 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Jana Ritter
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-4, 6-0
W
N/A
2026-05-14 · #2 Singles · 3.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-0, 6-0
L
2026-05-11 · #1 Singles · 4.0
−0.037below expectation — took 25% of games against 45% expected
6-3, 6-1
W
Katie McCrossen
2026-05-07 · #1 Singles · 3.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-1
W
2026-04-22 · #1 Singles · 4.0
+0.026better than expected — took 57% of games against 45% expected
6-4, 7-6
W
Janna Huggins / Michelle Fontana
2026-04-18 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Tabitha Elledge
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-3
W
Marie Strickland
2026-04-16 · #2 Singles · 3.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-4, 6-2
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.