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Sara Donovan

Portland, OR
2.5C year-end 2025
27 matches · 17W–10L · seasons 2025–2026
Bump probability
2.02.53.0lowhigh
Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely.
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The dashed lines are the edges of your band. The three shaded areas are exactly the three percentages below — area here is the chance of one outcome for you, not a count of players.
2.56
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 20 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 2.0
23%
stay 2.5
77%
up to 3.0
Projected to December: 0% down · 68% stay · 32% up, from a year-end estimate of 2.46. Lower than today’s 2.56 because form regresses — players this far above their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 2.5 runs from 2.01 to 2.50. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure.
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scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model. USTA publishes year-end ratings in December, which is when this gets graded against what actually happened.
Where you rank
Portland · 2.5
26 of 122
OR · 2.5
48 of 206
By our estimated rating, not the published level.
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Sara is ranked against players at the same level in the same place. The published level is identical for everyone in a band, so it cannot separate them — our estimate can. Groups smaller than five are not ranked at all, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Sara has been a steady 2.5 across all 2 seasons on record.

2.02.520252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 2.5, Sara has gone from the 33rd to the 97th percentile of players at that level, 2025 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level2 levels played
2.5
75%
15W–5L · 63.4% of games
2.5mixed
33.3%
2W–4L · 39.4% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history27 matches
W
2026-07-17 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Amelia Arvesen
+0.045better than expected — took 75% of games against 51% expected
6-3, 6-1
W
2026-06-29 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Carrie Jones
+0.028better than expected — took 92% of games against 68% expected
6-1, 6-0
W
Amy Tam-naulty / Kimi Owens
2026-06-22 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Amelia Arvesen
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-1, 6-2
L
Hanna Danielson / Dana Valverdechamps
2026-06-20 · #2 Doubles · with Karissa Ditgen
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
7-5, 6-2
W
China Forbes / Janel Warmington
2026-06-06 · #2 Doubles · 2.5 · with Karissa Ditgen
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-4, 6-0
W
April Chiang / Steffanie Altenbern
2026-05-30 · #2 Doubles · 2.5 · with Kendra Binney
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-0
W
Wendy Buchanan / Susan Grabe
2026-05-15 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Karissa Ditgen
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-3, 6-4
W
Susan McMaster / Steffanie Altenbern
2026-05-02 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Natalie Clouse
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-0, 6-0
W
Alison Lucas / Dani McLaughlin
2026-04-25 · #2 Doubles · 2.5 · with Natalie Clouse
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-3
W
Kathleen Huffman / Kathleen Brenneman
2026-04-04 · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Karissa Ditgen
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-4
W
2026-03-08 · #1 Female Singles · 2.5
+0.079better than expected — took 86% of games against 45% expected
6-1
W
Emma Morgan-mcleod / Michelle Embon
2026-02-21 · #1 Female Doubles · 2.5 · with Emma Henderson
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-4
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