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Sarah Mcmahon

Idaho Falls, ID
2.5C year-end 2025
31 matches · 8W–23L · seasons 2025–2026
Bump probability
2.02.53.0lowhigh
Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely.
i
The dashed lines are the edges of your band. The three shaded areas are exactly the three percentages below — area here is the chance of one outcome for you, not a count of players.
2.56
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 15 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 2.0
22%
stay 2.5
78%
up to 3.0
Projected to December: 0% down · 68% stay · 32% up, from a year-end estimate of 2.46. Lower than today’s 2.56 because form regresses — players this far above their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 2.5 runs from 2.01 to 2.50. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure.
i
scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model. USTA publishes year-end ratings in December, which is when this gets graded against what actually happened.
Where you rank
Idaho Falls · 2.5
8 of 12
ID · 2.5
20 of 27
By our estimated rating, not the published level.
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Sarah is ranked against players at the same level in the same place. The published level is identical for everyone in a band, so it cannot separate them — our estimate can. Groups smaller than five are not ranked at all, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Sarah has been 2.5 for all 2 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the middle of the band to the top.

2.02.520252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 2.5, Sarah has gone from the 2nd to the 100th percentile of players at that level, 2025 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level3 levels played
2.5
54.5%
6W–5L · 54.5% of games
3.0
0%
0W–10L · 16.1% of games
6.0mixed
14.3%
1W–6L · 33.1% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history31 matches
L
2026-07-18 · #1 Singles
−0.011below expectation — took 33% of games against 41% expected
6-2, 6-4
L
2026-07-18 · #1 Singles
+0.024better than expected — took 48% of games against 38% expected
4-6, 7-5, 1-0
W
Caitlin Kinahanchamps
2026-07-17 · #1 Singles
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-4, 6-2
L
2026-07-15 · #1 Singles · 3.0
+0.025about as expected — took 14% of games against 17% expected
6-1, 6-1
L
2026-07-08 · #1 Singles · 3.0
−0.017below expectation — took 8% of games against 28% expected
6-0, 6-1
L
2026-07-01 · #1 Singles · 3.0
−0.026below expectation — took 8% of games against 31% expected
6-1, 6-0
W
Emily Whitham
2026-06-15 · #1 Singles · 2.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-0
W
Sherri Overton
2026-06-08 · #1 Singles · 2.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-0
W
Traci Hansen
2026-06-01 · #1 Singles · 2.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-1
W
2026-05-27 · #1 Singles · 2.5
+0.089better than expected — took 86% of games against 41% expected
6-1, 6-1
W
N/A
2026-05-18 · #1 Singles · 2.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-0, 6-0
W
Julie Grigg
2026-05-13 · #1 Singles · 2.5
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.