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Paul Shmotolokha

Bellingham, WA
4.0C year-end 2025
87 matches · 44W–43L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.65
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 14 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
3%
down to 3.5
97%
stay 4.0
0%
up to 4.5

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the lower half of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Bellingham · 4.0
7 of 8
WA · 4.0
463 of 782

Paul is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Paul has been a steady 4.0 across all 7 seasons on record.

3.54.02019202020222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2022 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Paul has gone from the 46th to the 48th percentile of players at that level, 2023 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level6 levels played
4.0
52%
26W–24L · 51.9% of games
4.5
2W–1L
not enough matches yet
8.0
70%
7W–3L · 58.6% of games
7.0mixed
41.7%
5W–7L · 48.7% of games
8.0mixed
1W–2L
not enough matches yet
9.0mixed
2W–1L
not enough matches yet

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history87 matches
W
2026-05-17 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kevin McCarthy
+0.027better than expected — took 63% of games against 50% expected
6-4, 6-3
L
Noah Neubauer / Andy Baker
2026-05-10 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Rennan Branco
0.019below expectation — took 20% of games against 36% expected
6-2, 6-1
L
Tianyu Yang / Yi Lu
2026-05-03 · #3 Doubles · 4.0 · with Rennan Branco
+0.012better than expected — took 50% of games against 44% expected
6-4, 3-6, 1-0
W
2026-04-19 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with KIRK CRAWFORD
+0.002better than expected — took 80% of games against 69% expected
6-1, 6-2
W
2026-04-12 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Rennan Branco
+0.001about as expected — took 50% of games against 50% expected
7-6, 4-6, 1-0
W
Rob Leidle / Andrew Russin
2026-03-07 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kevin McCarthy
+0.034better than expected — took 71% of games against 52% expected
6-1, 6-4
W
2026-03-01 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kevin McCarthy
+0.012about as expected — took 50% of games against 46% expected
3-6, 7-5, 1-0
W
2026-02-21 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kevin McCarthy
+0.024better than expected — took 44% of games against 39% expected
1-6, 6-4, 1-0
W
2026-01-31 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Brady Gustafson
+0.007about as expected — took 60% of games against 56% expected
6-4, 6-4
L
David To / Wayne Hwang
2026-01-24 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Rick Adelstein
0.022below expectation — took 37% of games against 48% expected
6-4, 6-3
L
Munish Vashist / Reyn Nakamoto
2026-01-18 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with David Moreland
0.051below expectation — took 33% of games against 57% expected
6-3, 6-3
L
Xiadong Gong / Scott Mullet
2025-10-05 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Robert McCarthy
0.054below expectation — took 0% of games against 35% expected
3-0
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.