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Alexandra Chavez Caro

Chula Vista, CA
4.0C year-end 2025
34 matches · 15W–19L · seasons 2025–2026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh
Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely.
i
The dashed lines are the edges of your band. The three shaded areas are exactly the three percentages below — area here is the chance of one outcome for you, not a count of players.
3.57
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 11 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
20%
down to 3.5
80%
stay 4.0
0%
up to 4.5
Projected to December: 12% down · 88% stay · 0% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.59. Higher than today’s 3.57 because players this far below their band have historically finished nearer the middle of it.

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the bottom of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure.
i
scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model. USTA publishes year-end ratings in December, which is when this gets graded against what actually happened.
Where you rank
Chula Vista · 4.0
12 of 14
CA · 4.0
227 of 259
By our estimated rating, not the published level.
i
Alexandra is ranked against players at the same level in the same place. The published level is identical for everyone in a band, so it cannot separate them — our estimate can. Groups smaller than five are not ranked at all, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Alexandra has been a steady 4.0 across all 2 seasons on record.

3.54.020252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Alexandra has gone from the 34th to the 20th percentile of players at that level, 2025 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level5 levels played
3.5
1W–0L
not enough matches yet
4.0
36.4%
4W–7L · 45.5% of games
4.5
62.5%
10W–6L · 55.8% of games
5.0
0W–1L
not enough matches yet
8.0mixed
0W–2L
not enough matches yet

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history34 matches
L
Jessica Cunningham / Katerina Hart
2026-07-27 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Bea McLellan
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-1, 6-3
W
Claire Mallela / An Nguyen
2026-07-26 · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Carolyn Winn
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
7-5, 6-1
L
2026-07-21 · #3 Doubles · 5.0 · with Samantha Polikowski
+0.038better than expected — took 44% of games against 32% expected
3-6, 6-2, 1-0
L
2026-07-19 · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Cindy Lim
−0.033below expectation — took 48% of games against 60% expected
7-5, 5-7, 1-0
L
Sarah Shepard / Emi Kanayama
2026-07-13 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Bea McLellan
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-4
L
2026-06-22 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Sun Lee
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 6-3
W
2026-05-31 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Veronica Ruffo
−0.010about as expected — took 52% of games against 57% expected
4-6, 6-4, 1-0
L
Sandy Dielman / Kelly Wilson
2026-05-27 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Meg Dawson
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-3, 2-6, 1-0
W
2026-05-17 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Roanne Manzano-Roth
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-3, 6-3
L
Vivian Lee / Ryan Salasmixed
2026-02-07 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with John Carter
mixed — doesn't count toward your NTRP rating
6-4, 7-6
L
Jack Ribarich / Jacqueline Chafemixed
2026-01-24 · #3 Doubles · 8.0 · with Paul Minifee
mixed — doesn't count toward your NTRP rating
6-1, 6-0
L
Reanne Charuhas / Samira Sizdahkhanichamps
2025-12-06 · #3 Doubles · with Dania Michelle Castillo
expectation pending — we're still fetching an opponent's record
6-2, 7-5
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