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Matthew Cao

Newcastle, WA
4.0C year-end 2025
115 matches · 60W–55L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.70
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 10 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
1%
down to 3.5
99%
stay 4.0
0%
up to 4.5

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the lower half of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
WA · 4.0
352 of 782

Matthew is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Matthew has been 4.0 for all 7 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the top.

3.54.02019202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Matthew has gone from the 28th to the 82nd percentile of players at that level, 2021 to 2025.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level6 levels played
0.0
0W–2L
not enough matches yet
4.0
62.7%
37W–22L · 54.9% of games
4.5
40%
2W–3L · 46.1% of games
7.0mixed
58.3%
14W–10L · 55.8% of games
8.0mixed
30.8%
4W–9L · 44.3% of games
9.0mixed
20%
1W–4L · 42.9% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history115 matches
W
KIRK CRAWFORD / Tom Gresham
2026-05-16 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Nicholas Verghese
+0.014better than expected — took 62% of games against 54% expected
6-3, 7-5
L
2026-05-16 · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Brandon Nakata
0.024below expectation — took 29% of games against 43% expected
6-3, 6-2
L
Yu Xiao / Andrew Zhang
2026-04-24 · #3 Doubles · 4.0 · with Nicholas Verghese
0.011about as expected — took 44% of games against 49% expected
6-2, 3-6, 1-0
W
Kareem Kamel / Ethan Chung
2026-04-18 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Ryan Chan
+0.018better than expected — took 71% of games against 59% expected
6-3, 6-2
L
Steve Kwak / Chaitanya Kumar Reddy Mudireddy
2026-04-17 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Yodae Lim
+0.018better than expected — took 55% of games against 44% expected
7-6, 2-6, 1-0
L
Michael Qi / Eileen Lumixed
2025-11-15 · #1 Doubles · 7.0 · with Kiera Kim
+0.000below expectation — took 35% of games against 53% expected
7-6, 6-1
L
Shauna Forster / Kevin Tsaymixed
2025-11-14 · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Michiko Hunter
+0.000below expectation — took 29% of games against 39% expected
6-2, 6-3
L
2025-10-25 · #3 Doubles · 8.0 · with Nicole Ung
+0.000below expectation — took 20% of games against 47% expected
6-2, 6-1
L
Anita Marrero / Diego Mendivil Pindtermixed
2025-10-19 · #3 Doubles · 7.0 · with Justine Lin
+0.000better than expected — took 53% of games against 48% expected
6-3, 1-6, 1-0
W
Deirdre Chiu / Adam Chiumixed
2025-10-03 · #3 Doubles · 7.0 · with Michelle Fine
+0.000better than expected — took 71% of games against 62% expected
6-4, 6-1
L
Kevin Li / Sam Au
2025-07-31 · #1 Male Doubles · 0.0 · with Brandon Nakata
0.047below expectation — took 33% of games against 56% expected
6-3
L
Vijay Lin / Jay Squire
2025-07-24 · #1 Male Doubles · 0.0 · with Nicholas Verghese
0.033below expectation — took 33% of games against 50% expected
6-3
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.