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Matthew Lucas

Portland, OR
3.0C year-end 2025
50 matches · 28W–22L · seasons 20242026
Bump probability
2.53.03.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

2.92
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 14 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 2.5
83%
stay 3.0
17%
up to 3.5
Projected to December: 0% down · 96% stay · 4% up, from a year-end estimate of 2.86. Lower than today’s 2.92 because form regresses — players this far into their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 3.0 runs from 2.51 to 3.00. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Portland · 3.0
123 of 357
OR · 3.0
203 of 600

Matthew is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams8 teams · 2024–2026
VTC-Lord/Thoreson
2026 Mixed 40 & Over · 6.0 Mixed
2026
PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez
2026 Adult 18 & Over · 3.0 Men
2026
VTC-Lord/Smith
2026 Mixed 18 & Over · 5.0 Mixed
2026
VTC-Blum
2025 Mixed 18 & Over · 5.0 Mixed
2025
N OR-VTC-Lord
2025 Mixed 40 & Over · 5.0 Mixed
2025
PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk
2025 Adult 18 & Over · 3.0 Men
2025
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Matthew has played at 2.5, 3.0 across 3 seasons — 1 move up and 0 down.

2.02.53.0202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 3.0, Matthew has gone from the 11th to the 38th percentile of players at that level, 2024 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level4 levels played
2.5
75%
9W–3L · 62.1% of games
3.0
60%
12W–8L · 50% of games
2.5mixed
43.8%
7W–9L · 54.4% of games
6.0mixed
0W–2L
not enough matches yet

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history50 matches
W
2026-07-29 · #1 Singles · 3.0
+0.006about as expected — took 53% of games against 50% expected
6-3, 3-6, 1-0
W
2026-07-14 · #1 Singles · 3.0
0.046below expectation — took 50% of games against 68% expected
6-2, 1-6, 1-0
L
Ryan Gibson / Philberta Leungmixed
2026-07-11 · VTC-Lord/Thoreson · #1 Doubles · 6.0 · with Alison Lucas
+0.000below expectation — took 25% of games against 49% expected
6-2, 6-2
W
Eric Heredia
2026-07-07 · #1 Singles · 3.0
+0.004about as expected — took 55% of games against 53% expected
6-3, 4-6, 1-0
L
2026-06-21 · VTC-Lord/Thoreson · #1 Doubles · 6.0 · with Alison Lucas
+0.000below expectation — took 25% of games against 50% expected
6-3, 6-1
W
James Thomas / Keith Ketterling
2026-06-12 · PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez · #2 Doubles · 3.0 · with Brendan Adamczyk
+0.005better than expected — took 71% of games against 63% expected
6-1, 6-4
L
Scott Roth / John Bohls
2026-05-17 · PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Josh Berezin
0.032below expectation — took 14% of games against 37% expected
6-1, 6-1
L
Ryan Smith / Arda M Yucel
2026-05-02 · PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez · #3 Doubles · 3.0 · with Joseph Comer
0.097below expectation — took 8% of games against 57% expected
6-0, 6-1
W
David Salas / John Michael Murphy
2026-04-26 · PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Mario Sanchez
+0.005better than expected — took 80% of games against 69% expected
6-0, 6-3
W
2026-03-28 · PT&E/SJRC-Adamczyk/Sanchez · #2 Doubles · 3.0 · with Chris Ryan
0.025below expectation — took 59% of games against 66% expected
7-5, 6-4
L
2025-12-06 · VTC-Lord/Smith · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Alison Lucas
+0.000below expectation — took 43% of games against 59% expected
7-6, 6-4
L
Paul Walker / Andrea Cedfeldtmixed
2025-11-22 · VTC-Lord/Smith · #1 Doubles · 2.5 · with Alison Lucas
+0.000below expectation — took 46% of games against 66% expected
6-7, 6-4, 1-0
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