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Colin Arnold

Portland, OR
4.5C year-end 2025
137 matches · 67W–70L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
4.04.55.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

4.03
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 15 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
37%
down to 4.0
63%
stay 4.5
0%
up to 5.0
Projected to December: 22% down · 78% stay · 0% up, from a year-end estimate of 4.06. Higher than today’s 4.03 because players this far below their band have historically finished nearer the middle of it.

A 4.5 runs from 4.01 to 4.50. This rating sits in the bottom of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Portland · 4.5
75 of 119
OR · 4.5
148 of 226

Colin is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams30 teams · 2016–2026
NOR-CAC-McGarity
2026 Adult 18 & Over · 4.5 Men
2026
VTC-McGirk/Krauel
2026 Adult 40 & Over · 4.5 Men
2026
N OR-CAC-McGarity
2025 Adult 40 & Over · 4.5 Men
2025
N OR-CAC-McGarity
2025 Adult 18 & Over · 4.5 Men
2025
SAC-Furuya/Dewolf
2024 Adult 18 & Over · 4.5 Men
2024
N OR-CAC-McGarity
2024 Adult 40 & Over · 4.5 Men
2024
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Colin has been 4.5 for all 8 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the middle.

4.04.520192020202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 4.5, Colin has gone from the 24th to the 72nd percentile of players at that level, 2019 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level3 levels played
4.5
54.7%
47W–39L · 54% of games
5.0
0%
0W–8L · 30.1% of games
9.0mixed
54.5%
12W–10L · 48.8% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history137 matches
L
2026-06-21 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #1 Doubles · with Amahal Barbee
+0.039better than expected — took 38% of games against 28% expected
7-6, 6-2
L
2026-06-13 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Amahal Barbee
0.060below expectation — took 8% of games against 42% expected
6-0, 6-1
W
2026-05-16 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with James Luu
0.000about as expected — took 59% of games against 58% expected
6-4, 7-5
L
2026-05-02 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jack Yothers
+0.008about as expected — took 40% of games against 39% expected
6-4, 6-4
W
2026-04-25 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with James Luu
+0.011better than expected — took 65% of games against 58% expected
6-2, 7-5
L
Mitchell Earle / Aryan Gupta
2026-04-19 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Amahal Barbee
0.054below expectation — took 37% of games against 60% expected
6-4, 6-3
L
2026-03-28 · NOR-CAC-McGarity · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Joshua Owens
0.057below expectation — took 20% of games against 50% expected
6-1, 6-2
L
Todd Wilcox / Hector M Salomon
2026-03-21 · VTC-McGirk/Krauel · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Francisco Rivera-Giusti
+0.012better than expected — took 50% of games against 44% expected
3-6, 6-4, 1-0
W
2026-03-07 · VTC-McGirk/Krauel · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Francisco Rivera-Giusti
+0.048better than expected — took 80% of games against 54% expected
6-1, 6-2
W
2026-02-22 · VTC-McGirk/Krauel · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jeremy Morris
+0.062better than expected — took 67% of games against 39% expected
6-2, 6-4
W
2026-02-15 · VTC-McGirk/Krauel · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jeremy Morris
+0.010better than expected — took 63% of games against 57% expected
6-4, 6-3
W
N/A
2026-02-01 · VTC-McGirk/Krauel · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jeremy Morris
0.111about as expected — took 100% of games against 96% expected
6-0, 6-0
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.