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Patrick Herbst

Lake Oswego, OR
4.0C year-end 2025
89 matches · 44W–45L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.60
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 6 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
11%
down to 3.5
89%
stay 4.0
0%
up to 4.5
Projected to December: 7% down · 93% stay · 0% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.62. Higher than today’s 3.60 because players this far below their band have historically finished nearer the middle of it.

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the lower half of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Lake Oswego · 4.0
34 of 46
OR · 4.0
374 of 498

Patrick is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams60 teams · 2012–2027
MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh
2027 Adult 55 & Over · 8.0 Men
2027
MAC-Kafi/Post
2026 Adult 40 & Over · 4.0 Men
2026
MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh
2026 Adult 55 & Over · 8.0 Men
2026
MAC-Turnbull/Hergenhan
2025 Adult 55 & Over · 8.0 Men
2025
MAC-Kafi/Post
2025 Adult 40 & Over · 4.0 Men
2025
N OR-MAC-Kafi
2024 Adult 18 & Over · 4.0 Men
2024
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Patrick has been 4.0 for all 8 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the middle.

3.54.020192020202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 8.0, Patrick has gone from the 73rd to the 42nd percentile of players at that level, 2024 to 2025.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level4 levels played
4.0
60.4%
29W–19L · 54.3% of games
4.5
0W–2L
not enough matches yet
8.0
52.6%
10W–9L · 53.3% of games
8.0mixed
25%
4W–12L · 39.2% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history89 matches
L
2026-03-21 · MAC-Kafi/Post · #3 Doubles · 4.0 · with David Hill
0.036below expectation — took 37% of games against 54% expected
6-3, 6-4
W
2026-01-24 · MAC-Kafi/Post · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Robert Torch
0.024about as expected — took 63% of games against 68% expected
6-3, 6-4
L
2025-11-22 · MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with John Helmer III
+0.039better than expected — took 45% of games against 32% expected
4-6, 6-3, 1-0
W
2025-11-15 · MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Robert Torch
0.002about as expected — took 60% of games against 59% expected
6-4, 6-4
W
2025-10-31 · MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Robert Torch
+0.013better than expected — took 58% of games against 52% expected
6-2, 4-6, 1-0
W
Tony Humpage / Gerard Mildner
2025-10-19 · MAC-Turnbull/McDonagh · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Harry Semler
0.038below expectation — took 65% of games against 74% expected
6-2, 7-5
L
2025-02-16 · MAC-Kafi/Post · #3 Doubles · 4.0 · with Tyler Forrest
0.061below expectation — took 25% of games against 56% expected
6-2, 6-2
W
2025-01-05 · MAC-Kafi/Post · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Robert Torch
0.069below expectation — took 60% of games against 82% expected
6-4, 6-4
L
2024-12-08 · MAC-Turnbull/Hergenhan · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Todd Eckelman
0.001about as expected — took 53% of games against 51% expected
6-4, 2-6, 1-0
W
2024-11-17 · MAC-Turnbull/Hergenhan · #3 Doubles · 8.0 · with William Hergenhan
+0.023better than expected — took 60% of games against 49% expected
6-4, 6-4
L
Jae Joon Kang / Richard Jackson
2024-11-10 · MAC-Turnbull/Hergenhan · #3 Doubles · 8.0 · with Donald Brenneman
0.047below expectation — took 32% of games against 54% expected
7-5, 6-1
W
2024-11-03 · MAC-Turnbull/Hergenhan · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Brian Posewitz
+0.016better than expected — took 59% of games against 51% expected
6-4, 7-5
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