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Juan Arenas

Portland, OR
3.5C year-end 2025
55 matches · 23W–32L · seasons 20232026
Bump probability
3.03.54.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.41
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 14 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.0
87%
stay 3.5
13%
up to 4.0
Projected to December: 0% down · 97% stay · 3% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.35. Lower than today’s 3.41 because form regresses — players this far into their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 3.5 runs from 3.01 to 3.50. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Portland · 3.5
73 of 399
OR · 3.5
154 of 735

Juan is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams14 teams · 2023–2026
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Juan has been 3.5 for all 4 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the top.

3.03.52023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2024 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Juan has gone from the 27th to the 2nd percentile of players at that level, 2025 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level6 levels played
3.0
100%
4W–0L · 74.2% of games
3.5
46.7%
7W–8L · 48.6% of games
4.0
30%
3W–7L · 38.6% of games
7.0
57.1%
4W–3L · 51.6% of games
6.0mixed
28.6%
2W–5L · 48.8% of games
7.0mixed
25%
3W–9L · 40.4% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history55 matches
W
2026-06-14 · CAC-Lewis · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Tochukwu George
+0.043better than expected — took 50% of games against 36% expected
6-3, 2-6, 1-0
L
Charles Lockwood
2026-06-07 · CAC-Lewis · #1 Singles · 4.0
+0.049better than expected — took 47% of games against 30% expected
6-2, 2-6, 1-0
L
2026-05-23 · CAC-Lewis · #2 Singles · 4.0
+0.014about as expected — took 40% of games against 37% expected
6-4, 6-4
L
2026-05-22 · PTC-Wagner/Tse · #3 Doubles · 3.5 · with Scott Tse
0.021below expectation — took 43% of games against 52% expected
5-7, 6-2, 1-0
L
Sotaro Noguchi
2026-04-26 · CAC-Lewis · #2 Singles · 4.0
+0.025below expectation — took 0% of games against 8% expected
6-0, 6-0
W
Corey Kozachenko
2026-04-18 · PTC-Wagner/Tse · #1 Singles · 3.5
+0.014better than expected — took 59% of games against 52% expected
6-4, 7-5
L
2026-04-04 · CAC-Lewis · #2 Singles · 4.0
0.007below expectation — took 8% of games against 25% expected
6-1, 6-0
W
Justin Sapigao
2026-03-29 · PTC-Wagner/Tse · #1 Singles · 3.5
+0.028better than expected — took 67% of games against 52% expected
6-2, 6-4
L
2025-11-16 · PTC-Lee/Daoud · #3 Doubles · 6.0 · with Nichole Dewson
+0.000below expectation — took 47% of games against 61% expected
6-3, 3-6, 1-0
L
2025-11-01 · GLVR-Byrd 7.0 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Blythe Garma
+0.000better than expected — took 50% of games against 44% expected
3-6, 6-4, 1-0
L
2025-10-26 · GLVR-Byrd 7.0 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Blythe Garma
+0.000below expectation — took 29% of games against 42% expected
6-3, 6-2
L
2025-10-18 · PTC-Lee/Daoud · #2 Doubles · 6.0 · with Nichole Dewson
+0.000below expectation — took 14% of games against 46% expected
6-1, 6-1
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.