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Alexandra Lucas

Bellingham, WA
4.5C year-end 2025
54 matches · 26W–28L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
4.04.55.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

4.03
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 8 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
37%
down to 4.0
63%
stay 4.5
0%
up to 5.0
Projected to December: 22% down · 78% stay · 0% up, from a year-end estimate of 4.06. Higher than today’s 4.03 because players this far below their band have historically finished nearer the middle of it.

A 4.5 runs from 4.01 to 4.50. This rating sits in the bottom of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
WA · 4.5
231 of 364

Alexandra is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Alexandra has been 4.5 for all 6 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the middle.

4.04.5201920222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2019 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 4.5, Alexandra has gone from the 78th to the 83rd percentile of players at that level, 2022 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level3 levels played
4.5
47.1%
16W–18L · 55.9% of games
8.0mixed
1W–1L
not enough matches yet
9.0mixed
72.7%
8W–3L · 63.6% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history54 matches
W
2026-05-30 · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Annelise Anderson
0.009better than expected — took 92% of games against 81% expected
6-1, 6-0
L
2026-04-19 · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jill Rowland
0.070below expectation — took 39% of games against 66% expected
4-6, 6-1, 1-0
W
Gwendelyn Krause / MELISSA PISHION BOTTA
2026-04-18 · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Jenny Adams
+0.041better than expected — took 86% of games against 60% expected
6-1, 6-1
L
2026-04-17 · #1 Singles · 4.5
+0.028better than expected — took 45% of games against 35% expected
4-6, 6-3, 1-0
L
Dagney Markle / Rachel Ayers
2026-04-17 · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Annelise Anderson
0.006about as expected — took 44% of games against 47% expected
7-6, 7-5
W
2026-04-04 · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Annelise Anderson
+0.022better than expected — took 80% of games against 63% expected
6-2, 6-1
W
Megan Leahy / Jason Bedionesmixed
2025-11-15 · #1 Doubles · 9.0 · with Jeffrey Jablonski
+0.000better than expected — took 57% of games against 43% expected
5-7, 6-2, 1-0
W
2025-10-18 · #2 Doubles · 9.0 · with Jeffrey Jablonski
+0.000better than expected — took 80% of games against 56% expected
6-2, 6-1
L
2025-08-09 · #3 Doubles · with Kari Bowton
0.003about as expected — took 53% of games against 52% expected
2-6, 6-4, 1-0
L
2025-08-08 · #2 Doubles · with Aaryn Hieb
+0.007about as expected — took 48% of games against 44% expected
5-7, 6-4, 1-0
L
2025-08-08 · #3 Doubles · with Dawn Eliassen
0.042below expectation — took 20% of games against 44% expected
6-1, 6-2
L
Heather Morrow / Dan Suchamps
2025-06-14 · #3 Doubles · with Carmen Dolfo-Garrison
+0.012better than expected — took 47% of games against 42% expected
3-6, 6-3, 1-0
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.