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Tara Heikila

SALEM, OR
4.5C year-end 2025
178 matches · 133W–45L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
4.04.55.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

4.10
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 14 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
11%
down to 4.0
89%
stay 4.5
0%
up to 5.0
Projected to December: 7% down · 93% stay · 0% up, from a year-end estimate of 4.12. Higher than today’s 4.10 because players this far below their band have historically finished nearer the middle of it.

A 4.5 runs from 4.01 to 4.50. This rating sits in the bottom of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
OR · 4.5
109 of 226

Tara is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams68 teams · 2004–2026
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Tara has been 4.5 for all 8 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the top.

4.04.520192020202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2020 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 4.5, Tara has gone from the 98th to the 64th percentile of players at that level, 2019 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level2 levels played
4.5
78.9%
86W–23L · 61.5% of games
9.0mixed
80%
4W–1L · 50.5% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history178 matches
L
2026-06-20 · #1 Doubles · with Cassia Carpio
0.007about as expected — took 47% of games against 50% expected
3-6, 6-3, 1-0
L
2026-06-12 · LOTC-Taylor/Ferrer · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Ellen Mader
0.035below expectation — took 48% of games against 61% expected
4-6, 6-4, 1-0
L
2026-05-31 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Anne Rojan
0.024below expectation — took 48% of games against 57% expected
7-5, 4-6, 1-0
W
2026-05-30 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Anne Rojan
+0.003about as expected — took 62% of games against 58% expected
7-5, 6-3
W
2026-05-30 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #1 Doubles · 4.5 · with Rebecca Stewart Rust
+0.004better than expected — took 72% of games against 64% expected
7-5, 6-0
W
2026-05-09 · LOTC-Taylor/Ferrer · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Mary Green-Zwemke
+0.010about as expected — took 57% of games against 52% expected
6-7, 6-3, 1-0
W
2026-04-25 · LOTC-Taylor/Ferrer · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Amanda Wiley
+0.010better than expected — took 61% of games against 55% expected
6-1, 4-6, 1-0
W
Heidi Affentranger / Jessica Ma
2026-03-29 · LOTC-Taylor/Ferrer · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Cassia Carpio
+0.040better than expected — took 71% of games against 50% expected
6-3, 6-2
L
2026-03-21 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #3 Doubles · 4.5 · with Krista Mikalatos
0.019below expectation — took 40% of games against 49% expected
6-1, 5-7, 1-0
L
2026-03-08 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Heidi Affentranger
0.021below expectation — took 29% of games against 42% expected
6-3, 6-2
L
2026-02-07 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #2 Doubles · 4.5 · with Monique Eldridge
+0.020better than expected — took 56% of games against 45% expected
1-6, 6-4, 1-0
W
2025-11-22 · THPRD-Pham 9.0 · #1 Doubles · 9.0 · with Corey Buchanan
+0.000below expectation — took 50% of games against 65% expected
3-6, 6-4, 1-0
What an account addsprivate to you

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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.