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Sarah Gustafson

Bellingham, WA
4.0C year-end 2025
101 matches · 73W–28L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

4.00
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 4 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.5
51%
stay 4.0
49%
up to 4.5
Projected to December: 0% down · 86% stay · 14% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.92. Lower than today’s 4.00 because form regresses — players this far into their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Bellingham · 4.0
1 of 8
WA · 4.0
10 of 782

Sarah is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Sarah has been 4.0 for all 8 seasons on record, but moved a long way inside it — from the bottom of the band to the top.

3.54.020192020202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2023, 2026 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Sarah has gone from the 66th to the 88th percentile of players at that level, 2020 to 2024.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level6 levels played
3.5
100%
14W–0L · 71.3% of games
4.0
75.9%
22W–7L · 57.4% of games
4.5
14.3%
1W–6L · 45.9% of games
7.0mixed
90.9%
10W–1L · 71.8% of games
8.0mixed
45%
9W–11L · 48.4% of games
9.0mixed
75%
3W–1L · 60% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history101 matches
W
2026-02-28 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristin Meldahl
+0.047better than expected — took 80% of games against 54% expected
6-2, 6-1
L
2026-02-22 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristin Meldahl
0.058below expectation — took 20% of games against 51% expected
6-2, 6-1
W
2025-10-11 · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Brady Gustafson
+0.000below expectation — took 54% of games against 71% expected
7-6, 7-6
L
Lauren Kuan / Alex Hoangmixed
2025-09-13 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Brady Gustafson
+0.000below expectation — took 37% of games against 56% expected
6-4, 6-3
W
2025-04-25 · #1 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristin Meldahl
0.019below expectation — took 56% of games against 62% expected
3-6, 6-2, 1-0
W
2025-03-15 · #3 Doubles · 4.0 · with Michelle Cahill
+0.038better than expected — took 56% of games against 40% expected
6-2, 3-6, 1-0
W
2025-03-01 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Kristin Meldahl
+0.009better than expected — took 86% of games against 70% expected
6-1, 6-1
W
Lori Vieira / Pauline Snowden
2025-01-18 · #2 Doubles · 4.0 · with Julia Hartvigson
0.001better than expected — took 75% of games against 68% expected
6-2, 6-2
W
Brian McKittrick / Gina la Portamixed
2024-11-16 · #1 Doubles · 9.0 · with Maxim Shmotolokha
+0.000better than expected — took 71% of games against 60% expected
6-4, 6-1
W
Djelli Berisha / Justine Bangmixed
2024-11-12 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Brady Gustafson
+0.000about as expected — took 52% of games against 48% expected
6-4, 4-6, 1-0
W
Samuel Yuen / Halle Jacksonmixed
2024-10-27 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Brady Gustafson
+0.000below expectation — took 47% of games against 55% expected
2-6, 6-4, 1-0
L
2024-10-19 · #1 Doubles · 9.0 · with Maxim Shmotolokha
+0.000below expectation — took 43% of games against 52% expected
6-3, 6-7, 1-0
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.