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Carrie Willis

Brush Prairie, WA
4.0C year-end 2025
173 matches · 121W–52L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.54.04.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.86
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 18 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.5
96%
stay 4.0
4%
up to 4.5
Projected to December: 0% down · 99% stay · 1% up, from a year-end estimate of 3.81. Lower than today’s 3.86 because form regresses — players this far into their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 4.0 runs from 3.51 to 4.00. This rating sits in the upper half of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Brush Prairie · 4.0
1 of 5
WA · 4.0
77 of 782

Carrie is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams35 teams · 2018–2026
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Carrie has played at 3.5, 4.0 across 8 seasons — 1 move up and 0 down.

3.03.54.020192020202120222023202420252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 4.0, Carrie has gone from the 73rd to the 90th percentile of players at that level, 2019 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level7 levels played
3.5
76.9%
20W–6L · 63.2% of games
4.0
74.4%
64W–22L · 62.4% of games
4.5
2W–0L
not enough matches yet
6.0mixed
1W–2L
not enough matches yet
7.0mixed
50%
2W–2L · 52.1% of games
8.0mixed
63%
17W–10L · 53.6% of games
9.0mixed
50%
5W–5L · 55.6% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history173 matches
W
2026-05-03 · VTC-Watkins/Chennault · #1 Singles · 4.0
0.018about as expected — took 68% of games against 69% expected
6-1, 7-5
L
Kate Griffin
2026-04-19 · VTC-Watkins/Chennault · #1 Singles · 4.0
0.040below expectation — took 53% of games against 64% expected
2-6, 6-4, 1-0
W
2026-03-15 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #1 Singles · 4.5
+0.115better than expected — took 100% of games against 41% expected
3-0
W
2026-03-14 · VTC-Atchley/Watkins · #1 Singles · 4.0
+0.006better than expected — took 75% of games against 65% expected
6-1, 6-3
W
2026-02-22 · VTC-Atchley/Watkins · #1 Singles · 4.0
+0.015better than expected — took 63% of games against 55% expected
6-0, 5-7, 1-0
W
2026-02-07 · VTC-Atchley/Watkins · #1 Singles · 4.0
0.074below expectation — took 65% of games against 87% expected
4-6, 6-0, 1-0
L
2026-01-31 · VTC-Atchley/Watkins · #1 Singles · 4.0
0.024below expectation — took 42% of games against 53% expected
7-5, 7-5
W
Melanie Wong
2026-01-10 · VTC-Atchley/Watkins · #1 Singles · 4.0
+0.030better than expected — took 75% of games against 57% expected
6-2, 6-2
W
2026-01-04 · VTC-Affentranger/Graham · #1 Singles · 4.5
+0.031better than expected — took 59% of games against 45% expected
6-4, 7-5
W
2025-12-06 · VTC-Watkins · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Wes Schalk
+0.000better than expected — took 86% of games against 54% expected
6-1, 6-1
L
Deborah Naugler / Samuel Mallochmixed
2025-11-29 · VTC-O'Neil/Lemes · #3 Doubles · 9.0 · with Jack Wang
+0.000better than expected — took 52% of games against 45% expected
7-6, 3-6, 1-0
W
2025-11-14 · VTC-Watkins · #3 Doubles · 8.0 · with Wes Schalk
+0.000about as expected — took 62% of games against 62% expected
6-3, 7-5
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.