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Michael Carlson

Woodinville, WA
3.5C year-end 2025
100 matches · 40W–60L · seasons 20192026
Bump probability
3.03.54.0lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.27
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 9 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 3.0
100%
stay 3.5
0%
up to 4.0

A 3.5 runs from 3.01 to 3.50. This rating sits in the middle of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Woodinville · 3.5
8 of 13
WA · 3.5
652 of 1209

Michael is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Michael has played at 4.0, 3.5 across 4 seasons — 0 moves up and 1 down.

3.03.54.02019202020242025

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history.

How you rank at your level
At 7.0, Michael has gone from the 33rd to the 84th percentile of players at that level, 2022 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level4 levels played
3.5
45.5%
5W–6L · 45.6% of games
4.0
45.5%
5W–6L · 47.6% of games
7.0
60%
21W–14L · 54.7% of games
8.0
20.9%
9W–34L · 37.7% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history100 matches
W
Anil Patel / James Tursa
2026-05-21 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Jim Waters
+0.038better than expected — took 71% of games against 51% expected
6-3, 6-2
W
Randy Barber / Ray Santos
2026-05-01 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Jim Waters
0.020about as expected — took 71% of games against 71% expected
6-2, 6-3
W
AL King / Kim Henderson
2026-04-21 · #3 Doubles · 7.0 · with Seth Fulcher
+0.019better than expected — took 57% of games against 48% expected
6-4, 7-6
L
2025-11-09 · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with Peter Sefton
+0.016about as expected — took 29% of games against 30% expected
6-2, 6-3
L
2025-10-17 · #2 Doubles · 8.0 · with David Higginbotham
0.038below expectation — took 8% of games against 35% expected
6-0, 6-1
L
Paul Sullivan / Roger Bowers
2025-10-12 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with JOHN GLOVER
0.007below expectation — took 20% of games against 32% expected
6-2, 6-1
L
Sean Kelly / Brian Namba
2025-10-04 · #1 Doubles · 8.0 · with Stuart Cobb
0.018below expectation — took 25% of games against 39% expected
6-2, 6-2
W
2025-10-03 · #3 Doubles · 7.0 · with David Higginbotham
+0.017better than expected — took 68% of games against 58% expected
7-5, 6-1
L
2025-09-14 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Jim Waters
+0.006about as expected — took 48% of games against 44% expected
6-4, 5-6
W
2025-05-15 · #2 Doubles · 7.0 · with Peter Sefton
0.022below expectation — took 42% of games against 54% expected
7-5, 0-6, 1-0
W
Geoff Lieberman / Bob Sims
2025-05-08 · #1 Doubles · 7.0 · with Peter Sefton
+0.042better than expected — took 86% of games against 60% expected
6-1, 6-1
W
Erik Gunvaldson / Robert Shen
2025-05-07 · #1 Doubles · 7.0 · with Seth Fulcher
+0.045better than expected — took 71% of games against 48% expected
6-4, 6-1
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Not affiliated with or endorsed by the USTA. Rating shown is the published USTA year-end figure; match data is from USTA TennisLink.