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Jason Graham

Vancouver, WA
3.0C year-end 2025
54 matches · 24W–30L · seasons 20202026
Bump probability
2.53.03.5lowhigh

Where this rating stands today. Taller means more likely. The dashed lines are the band edges, and the three shaded areas are the three percentages below.

3.01
estimated dynamic rating
Where the rating sits now, on 25 matches this season · USTA never publishes this number
0%
down to 2.5
45%
stay 3.0
55%
up to 3.5
Projected to December: 0% down · 83% stay · 17% up, from a year-end estimate of 2.93. Lower than today’s 3.01 because form regresses — players this far above their band partway through a season have historically finished nearer the middle of it. Keep playing at this level and the numbers above are the ones that hold.

A 3.0 runs from 2.51 to 3.00. This rating sits in the top of the band, and every match moves it.

Our estimate, not a USTA figure — scale measured at this point of 2023 on 2160 players. Graded publicly in December when USTA publishes year-end ratings. It moves when you play, and occasionally when we improve the model.

Where you rank
Vancouver · 3.0
10 of 52
WA · 3.0
228 of 755

Jason is ranked among players at the same level in the same place, by our estimated dynamic rating — not the published level, which is the same for everyone in the band. Groups smaller than five are not ranked, because a placing out of two is noise dressed as standing.

Teams12 teams · 2018–2026
Over timerating by season, and how you rank
Rating by season

Jason has played at 3.5, 3.0 across 5 seasons — 0 moves up and 1 down.

2.53.03.520202021202220252026

The line is our estimate; the horizontal lines are level boundaries, so crossing one is a bump. Hollow points are years we inferred from the level played the following season, because USTA publishes a current rating but no history. The smaller, faded points — 2022 — rest on fewer than 5 matches, where the estimate is mostly the level the player was entered at rather than anything they did on court. Read the shape, not the value.

How you rank at your level
At 3.0, Jason has gone from the 38th to the 76th percentile of players at that level, 2025 to 2026.

Percentile compares the same level in the same season, by share of games won. Mixed is shown for context — USTA rules exclude it from your adult rating unless mixed is all you play.

By level4 levels played
3.0
53.6%
15W–13L · 52.9% of games
3.5
25%
3W–9L · 41.4% of games
6.0
33.3%
2W–4L · 45% of games
7.0mixed
50%
4W–4L · 49.4% of games

Games won matters more than matches won — NTRP adjusts on margins.

Match history54 matches
L
2026-07-05 · VTC-Simpson · #3 Doubles · 7.0 · with Angela Graham
+0.000about as expected — took 37% of games against 37% expected
6-3, 6-4
L
2026-06-22 · MJ2 · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Monte Phillips
0.026below expectation — took 25% of games against 41% expected
6-1, 6-3
W
Annie Nguyen / John Nguyenmixed
2026-06-21 · VTC-Simpson · #1 Doubles · 7.0 · with Angela Graham
+0.000better than expected — took 67% of games against 54% expected
6-3, 6-3
L
John Naughton / John Jack Magaddino
2026-06-20 · MJ2 · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Matt Ramshaw
0.015below expectation — took 48% of games against 54% expected
7-6, 6-7, 1-0
W
2026-06-13 · VTC-Grant(s) · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Frank Brown
+0.010about as expected — took 54% of games against 50% expected
7-6, 7-6
W
Jay Waters / Hao Lee
2026-06-07 · VTC-Grant(s) · #2 Doubles · 3.0 · with James Araujo
+0.057better than expected — took 80% of games against 50% expected
6-1, 6-2
W
Benjamin Sehy / Chris Hartson
2026-06-06 · VTC-Grant(s) · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Ryan Fitzgerald
+0.017better than expected — took 59% of games against 51% expected
6-1, 3-6, 1-0
L
Shriram Shivaraman
2026-05-30 · #1 Singles · 3.0
0.020below expectation — took 39% of games against 49% expected
6-1, 4-6, 1-0
W
Ed Keene / John Crawford
2026-05-24 · VTC-Grant(s) · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Khaden Jee
0.008about as expected — took 62% of games against 62% expected
6-2, 7-6
W
Bj Park
2026-05-02 · VTC-Grant(s) · #1 Singles · 3.0
+0.004better than expected — took 75% of games against 66% expected
6-3, 6-1
L
David Lee
2026-04-12 · VTC-Grant(s) · #2 Singles · 3.0
+0.052better than expected — took 37% of games against 22% expected
6-3, 6-4
W
Matt Ramshaw / Nestor Daniel Hernandez Juarez
2026-03-28 · VTC-Grant(s) · #1 Doubles · 3.0 · with Terry Bennett
+0.025better than expected — took 75% of games against 59% expected
6-2, 6-2
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